It follows the arrest on Tuesday at Luton Airport of a 47-year-old man.
He was initially arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud and to kidnap. However police have now arrested him on suspicion of murder.
Currently nine people have been arrested and one charged in connection with the disappearance of Miss Waugh, 50, who was last seen in April.
Investigating officer Det Ch Insp John McFarlane said: "Information has been received which has progressed this inquiry and we are now treating Carole's disappearance as a murder investigation.
"I am unable to go into further detail about the nature of the new information at this time, however, we now believe that Carole has not been seen alive since 16 April.
"Since that time, significant plundering of her estate has taken place to the value of hundreds of thousands of pounds."
Police are continuing to establish whether Miss Waugh was working as a prostitute.
Of those arrested, three men and two women have been released on bail pending further inquiries.
A 40-year-old man has been charged with three counts of conspiracy to commit fraud by false representation arising from transactions associated with Miss Waugh's identity.
He is currently remanded in custody to appear at Southwark Crown Court in September.
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